/ES Futures Selling Off Sharply = Don't Panic - Back To Basics
The number one thing you can do right now? Stay small.
A Word on Today’s Market (Sunday Evening)
The futures are down hard tonight.
As I write this Sunday evening, /ES futures are selling off sharply. Tomorrow’s open could be brutal. Social media is lighting up with panic. The fear is palpable.
Here’s what you need to know: Don’t panic.
The number one thing you can do right now? Stay small.
Keep your buying power as low as possible. Keep dry powder. Don’t rush to deploy capital just because “everything is on sale.”
Yes, there will be opportunities. But opportunity without discipline is just gambling with better marketing.
Here’s the plan:
Don’t panic sell positions you already have (if you sized correctly, you can weather this)
Don’t go big into new positions tomorrow (even if premiums look juicy)
Stay small (1-2% buying power per trade, not 10-20%)
Be opportunistic, not aggressive (there’s a difference)
Keep buying power usage under 30-40% (leaving 60-70% dry powder)
Most traders will do the opposite tomorrow:
Panic sell existing positions at the worst prices
Then FOMO into new positions too big
Blow up their account by Wednesday
Don’t be that trader.
Instead, embrace the opportunity with discipline.
Volatility creates premium. Fear inflates option prices. Down moves create selling opportunities at better strikes.
But only if you have the capital and emotional bandwidth to take advantage.
That requires staying small. Keeping dry powder. Not panicking.
The traders who survive volatile markets aren’t the ones with the best crystal balls. They’re the ones with the best risk management.
Now, let’s talk about the framework that keeps us disciplined when everyone else is losing their minds...
The 20 Tasty Trade Commandments: A GYP Deep Dive
The framework that changed options trading forever.
Introduction: Why These Commandments Matter
In 2011, Tom Sosnoff and a team of traders at Tasty Trade set out to answer a simple question:
What actually works in options trading?
Not theory. Not intuition. Not what “feels right.”
What does the data say?
After analyzing millions of trades, billions in premium, and decades of market data, they distilled their findings into 20 commandments.
These aren’t suggestions. They’re rules built on statistical evidence.
At Grow Your Pile, we’ve built our entire strategy around these principles. Our three portfolios—Growth ($1M+), Active ($200K+), and ETF Macro (100% allocated)—all operate within this framework.
t just theory. How we actually use these rules every single day.
Let’s dive in.
Commandment #1: Limit Upside for Higher Probability
“Place trades that limit your upside in return for a higher probability of success.”
What This Means:
Don’t buy naked calls hoping for 1,000% returns.
Sell vertical spreads. Sell puts. Sell calls. Collect premium.
Trade Structure:
❌ Low Probability: Buy $5 OTM call, hope for 10x return (10% probability)
✅ High Probability: Sell $5 OTM put, collect premium (70-80% probability)
GYP Application:
Portfolio 1 & 2: We sell puts on SPY, /MES, /ES. We collect theta. We don’t buy OTM calls hoping for lotto winners.
Example: Instead of buying SPY 700 calls (low probability), we sell SPY 660 puts (high probability of expiring worthless).
We cap upside at the premium collected. But we win 65-75% of the time.
Commandment #2: Strategy Diversification Over Asset Diversification
“Define your portfolio not by asset class diversification, but by strategy diversification and its overall probability of success.”
What This Means:
Don’t just own “stocks, bonds, commodities.”
Own different STRATEGIES with different probabilities:
Short puts (70% win rate)
Credit spreads (65% win rate)
Iron condors (60% win rate)
Covered calls (65% win rate)
GYP Application:
Portfolio 1: Short puts + synthetics + weekly calls + butterflies + BOX trades
Portfolio 2: Short puts + long hedges + covered calls (BITO) + stock positions
Portfolio 3: ETF buy-and-hold (different strategy entirely)
We diversify by HOW we make money, not just WHAT we own.
Commandment #3: Portfolio Probability 65-75%
“Overall portfolio probability of success should be between 65% and 75%.”
What This Means:
If every trade is 90% probability (far OTM), you’re not collecting enough premium.
If every trade is 50% probability (ATM or ITM), you’re gambling.
Sweet spot: 65-75% overall.
GYP Application:
We target this by selling puts at strikes with:
25-35 delta (roughly 65-75% probability of expiring OTM)
30-60 DTE (optimal theta decay curve)
Example: SPY at 672, we sell 660 puts (12 points OTM, ~70% probability).
Not 600 puts (90% but tiny premium). Not 680 puts (50% but too risky).
Commandment #4: Trade Only Liquid Products
“Trade only in liquid products.”
What This Means:
Wide bid/ask spreads kill profits.
Stick to:
SPY, QQQ, IWM (not XYZ low-volume ETF)
/ES, /MES (not obscure futures)
AAPL, MSFT (not penny stocks)
GYP Application:
We trade:
SPY (insane liquidity)
/MES, /ES (tight spreads)
SPX (cash-settled, liquid)
Major stocks (AMZN, TLT)
We avoid:
Low-volume ETFs
Illiquid underlyings
Penny stock options
Liquidity = tight spreads = better fills = more profit kept.
Commandment #5: Theta = 1/10 of Account Monthly
What This Means:
If you have $1,000,000 account, theta should be ~$1,100/day (1/3 of $1,000,000K per month = $33,333/month ÷ 30 days).
GYP Application:
Portfolio 1 ($1M):
Current theta: $772/day
Target (1/3 per month): ~$1,100/day
We’re at 70% of target (conservative by design)
Portfolio 2 ($200K):
Current theta: $101/day
Target (1/3 per month): ~$220/day
We’re at 46% of target (very conservative due to 87% cash)
We run below this benchmark intentionally. More conservative = better sleep.
Commandment #6: Deltas Match Assumptions, Stay Comfortable
“Your Deltas should match your assumptions, but also should be small enough to feel comfortable.”
What This Means:
Bullish? Positive delta okay.
Neutral? Keep delta near zero.
Bearish? Negative delta.
But: Don’t overdo it. If +2,000 delta makes you nervous, dial it back.
GYP Application:
Portfolio 1:
Delta: +1,200 (AT our max benchmark)
Bullish bias (short puts = long delta)
Matches our “mildly bullish long-term” assumption
Portfolio 2:
Delta: +442
Includes 1,000 BITO shares (stock delta)
Comfortable with this exposure
We set maximums (1,200 delta per $1M) and don’t exceed them even when brokers allow it.
Commandment #7: Beta Weight Your Portfolio
“Beta weigh your portfolio so you ‘know’ what you have on.”
What This Means:
All positions correlate to SPY differently.
Beta weighting converts everything to “SPY equivalents.”
GYP Application:
We track delta by instrument but understand:
1 /ES contract ≈ 500 SPY shares delta
10 /MES contracts ≈ 500 SPY shares delta
This helps us know total portfolio exposure in common terms.
Commandment #8: Manage Winners, Not Losers
“Manage winning trades, not losing trades.”
What This Means:
Traditional wisdom: “Let winners run, cut losers.”
Tasty Trade data: “Take profit at 50-75%, hold losers with time.”
Why?
Winners can reverse. Lock profit at 50%.
Losers have time to recover (if you sold premium with 30-60 DTE).
GYP Application:
Our 50% rule:
Sell put for $5 credit
Close when it hits $2.50 (50% profit)
Don’t hold for $5 → $0
Example: We closed /MES puts this month at 54-57% profit. Didn’t wait for 100%.
Losers? We have 42-168 DTE. We manage with time, not panic.
Commandment #9: Risk Defined at Entry, 1-2% Per Trade
“Risk is defined at order entry. Size matters. Use 1-2% buying power reduction per trade.”
What This Means:
Know max loss BEFORE entering.
Each trade should use 1-2% of buying power (BP).
$100K account: Each trade = $1K-2K BP
$1M account: Each trade = $10K-20K BP
GYP Application:
Portfolio 1 ($1M, Portfolio Margin):
SPY put uses ~$5K-10K BP
/ES put uses ~$15K-25K BP
We size to 1-3% per trade
This prevents one bad trade from destroying the account.
Commandment #10: Biggest Mistakes = Size & Strategy
“Biggest trading mistakes are: trading too big, and using the wrong strategies.”
What This Means:
Mistake #1: Putting 50% of account in one trade (suicide).
Mistake #2: Buying naked calls in low volatility (wrong tool).
GYP Application:
We avoid:
Oversizing (never more than 5% BP per single position)
Buying options in low IV (we SELL in low IV)
Selling options in high IV without protection (we hedge)
Example: We didn’t go all-in on one /ES position. We built a ladder across strikes and expirations.
Commandment #11: Exit Using Time and Price
“Exit trades using time and price.”
What This Means:
Don’t just “set and forget.”
Exit triggers:
Time: 21 DTE (roll or close)
Price: 50% profit (close)
Price: Strike tested (adjust)
GYP Application:
Our rules:
50% profit → Close (price trigger)
21 DTE → Roll or close (time trigger)
Underlying at strike → Evaluate adjustment (price trigger)
We don’t hold to expiration unless max profit zone.
Commandment #12: Never Use Stop Orders when trading options
What This Means:
Stop losses in options:
Get triggered by random volatility
Lock in losses at worst prices
Don’t account for time value
Better: Manage position with rolls, time, adjustments.
GYP Application:
We don’t use stop losses on options.
Instead:
Mental stops (exit if thesis breaks)
Time-based management (roll at 21 DTE)
Delta/BP limits (close if exceeding benchmarks)
Example: /ES puts underwater -$5,275. No stop loss triggered. We have 71-168 DTE to manage.
Commandment #13: Extend Duration
“Extend duration, to give you time to be right.”
What This Means:
30-60 DTE > 7-14 DTE.
More time = more chances for thesis to work.
GYP Application:
We sell:
30-60 DTE puts (optimal theta decay)
Synthetics 6-12 months out (long duration)
We avoid:
Weekly options as primary strategy (unless covered calls)
Short DTE on short premium (not enough time)
Exception: Weekly calls on synthetics (but underlying synthetic is long-dated).
Commandment #14: Trade Often/Trade Small or very small
“Trade often in order to help probabilities work in your favor.”
What This Means:
10 trades at 70% probability = variance.
1,000 trades at 70% probability = statistical certainty.
More occurrences = probabilities actualize.
GYP Application:
Portfolio 1: 46 active positions
Portfolio 2: 38 active positions
We don’t make 1 big bet. We make many small, high-probability bets.
Law of large numbers works in our favor.
Commandment #15: Use Volatility to Identify Opportunities
“Use volatility to identify opportunities and to determine the correct ‘strategy’ and ‘size’ for the current situation.”
What This Means:
High IV (VIX 24+):
Sell premium (inflated prices)
Reduce size (risk elevated)
Add hedges
Low IV (VIX <15):
Buy premium (cheap protection)
Increase size (risk lower)
Avoid selling (premiums tiny)
GYP Application:
This week (VIX 24):
We SOLD puts (premium inflated)
We bought long hedges (Portfolio 2)
Tony Bat day-traded volatility skew (diagonal spreads)
If VIX drops to 12:
We’d reduce short put exposure
We’d buy cheap long-term protection
We’d wait for IV expansion
Commandment #16: Play With Full Set of Clubs
“Understand all products, and their theoretical equivalences, including Stocks, Options, Futures and Forex. Play with a full set of clubs.”
What This Means:
Don’t just trade stocks.
Equivalencies:
100 shares SPY ≈ 1 /ES contract ≈ Long call + short put (synthetic)
Covered call ≈ Short put (same risk profile)
Use the right tool:
Capital efficient? Futures or synthetics
Tax efficient? Index options (SPX)
Simplest? Stock
GYP Application:
We use:
Stocks (Portfolio 2 real assets, Portfolio 3 ETFs)
Options (all portfolios)
Futures (/MES, /ES for capital efficiency)
Synthetics (TLT, AMZN instead of buying shares)
Same exposure, different tools, different capital requirements.
Commandment #17: Use Leverage to Maximize Return on Capital
“Use leverage to maximize capital use, and to increase your probability of success.”
What This Means:
Don’t leave capital idle.
But: Leverage ≠ reckless risk.
Leverage = capital efficiency:
Synthetics vs stock (80% capital saved)
Portfolio Margin vs Reg T (50% BP saved)
Futures vs stock (massive capital saved)
GYP Application:
Portfolio 1:
TLT synthetic: $1,500 margin vs $8,800 stock
AMZN synthetic: $4,000 margin vs $20,500 stock
Saved capital deployed elsewhere
This isn’t “more risk.” It’s “same risk, less capital tied up.”
Commandment #18: Assumptions Are 50/50 at Best
“Create assumptions by any method that you like, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, tape reading, etc., but remember at best your assumptions will be a 50/50 proposition.”
What This Means:
You can’t predict markets.
Even the best analysis:
Technical setups: ~50% win rate
Fundamental valuations: ~50% directional accuracy
Economic forecasts: ~50% correct
So why trade?
Because selling premium with 70% probability > directional betting at 50%.
GYP Application:
We assume:
Markets go up over time (long-term bullish bias)
But day-to-day? Coin flip.
So we:
Sell premium (70% probability)
Diversify across strikes/expirations
Manage with time, not conviction
We’re wrong often. But probabilities + time work anyway.
Commandment #19: Markets Are Random and Cyclical
“Markets are random and cyclical, use pot odds as another tool that helps create assumptions.”
What This Means:
Random: Day-to-day moves are noise.
Cyclical: Mean reversion happens.
Pot odds: Risk/reward math (poker concept).
Example:
VIX at 10 → Likely to spike (cyclical)
VIX at 35 → Likely to drop (cyclical)
GYP Application:
This week:
VIX spiked to 24 (elevated)
We sold premium (VIX likely to contract)
We bought hedges (cheap protection)
We use cycles:
High IV → Sell
Low IV → Buy protection
Markets extended → Fade, not chase
Commandment #20: Don’t Buy Breakouts or Sell Breakdowns
WHY? “Buying breakouts, or selling breakdowns only works 15% of the time.”
What This Means:
Retail logic:
Stock breaks out → Buy (chase)
Stock breaks down → Sell/short (panic)
Tasty Trade data:
Breakouts fail 85% of time (mean reversion)
Breakdowns bounce 85% of time (oversold)
Better: Fade breakouts, buy breakdowns (contrarian).
GYP Application:
This week:
SPY broke down from 685 → 672
We didn’t panic sell
We sold MORE puts (bought the breakdown)
March 2:
Gold pulled back from highs
We sold GLD puts (bought the dip)
We fade extremes. We don’t chase them.
The 21st Commandment (Unofficial): Stay Engaged
“Stay engaged by trading small, Stay in the Game”
“Good Luck Trading” — Tony
GYP Application:
We:
Send weekly portfolio updates (keep subscribers engaged)
Analyze trades (Tony Bat’s day trading breakdown)
Share what works AND what doesn’t
Education never stops.
Final Thought: Rules Beat Emotions
The Tasty Trade 20 Commandments aren’t theoretical.
They’re built on:
Millions of trades analyzed
Billions in premium tracked
Decades of market data
At Grow Your Pile, we’ve seen them work in real time:
Portfolio 1: $772/day theta, 46 positions, delta at max
Portfolio 2: 87% cash cushion, underwater puts managed calmly
Portfolio 3: 12 ETFs, monthly rebalancing, +10-12% since inception
The commandments work because:
They remove emotion (rules-based)
They use probabilities (not predictions)
They manage risk (position sizing, duration, diversification)
Most traders:
Chase breakouts (Commandment #20 violation)
Trade too big (Commandment #9 violation)
Use stop losses on options (Commandment #12 violation)
Buy naked calls (Commandment #1 violation)
And they lose.
We follow the commandments. We sell premium. We manage winners. We extend duration. We trade small and often.
Follow the commandments. Ignore the noise. Let probabilities work.
— TonyB & TonyR
Grow Your Pile
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE - EDUCATIONAL ONLY
This article is provided strictly for educational purposes. We are NOT registered investment advisors. NOTHING in this article constitutes investment advice. No advisory relationship exists.
The Tasty Trade Commandments are a framework, not a guarantee. Following these rules does not ensure profitability or prevent losses. Markets can produce sustained drawdowns even with proper strategy implementation.
YOU ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE for all trading decisions. Consult licensed professionals before trading.
SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS: All trading involves risk. Options can expire worthless. Short premium can produce unlimited losses. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Past performance does not predict future results.
We assume ZERO liability for losses from attempting to implement these commandments or any strategies discussed.
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Grow Your Pile © 2026 | Educational Content Only | Not Investment Advice
Detailed, yet to the point.
Clear-headed guidance.
Thanks for sharing.