P1 Trade Alert — Broken Wing Butterfly on SPX

Date: Friday, May 8, 2026 SPX: ~7,375 · SPY: $737.31

Uncle Tony Commentary

This week I broke one of my own rules.

After more than five straight weeks of the SPX rallying at a near record-setting pace, I attempted to call a top — or at least a temporary one.

As a result, I neutralized the portfolio and even shifted us to slightly short delta. So far, the market is telling me I’m wrong. Fortunately, the adjustment only gave back a relatively small portion of our recent gains, but it’s still a reminder that fighting momentum can be expensive.

That said, if there were ever a logical place to begin leaning more cautious or testing short exposure, these types of stretched conditions are as reasonable as any. The difficulty is that strong momentum markets can remain extended much longer than most traders expect.

I also applied some of the concepts we covered during yesterday’s Office Hours session and initiated a Broken Wing Butterfly using the same framework and parameters discussed in class. It was a good opportunity to implement the strategy in real market conditions while keeping risk defined.

If you are currently long delta, congratulations — you’ve been aligned with one of the strongest upside moves we’ve seen in quite some time. If you’re not, like us, then we’ve been a bit too cautious.

Just don’t make the mistake of chasing the move up here aggressively. Markets that rise this quickly can pull back hard and fast at any moment… even if, right now, it doesn’t seem like they want to.

Happy weekend to everyone.

— Tony