P1 Trade Alert — Rates Pressuring Stocks and Gold, Adding Long Delta Incrementally
The rally environment is finally showing the first signs of two-way movement
Date: Monday, May 18, 2026 Portfolio: P1 — Growth SPY: $736.38 · SPX: ~7,364 · /MES: ~7,434
Regime Read — Where We Are Right Now
Volatility: VIX still in the mid-teens but firming on today’s pullback — the rally environment is finally showing the first signs of two-way movement. Implied vol on SPY/GLD remains cheap relative to historical norms; we’re collecting reasonable but not rich premium.
Momentum: Six straight weeks of upside finally broke. Today is the second meaningful down session in a row (Friday May 15 was the first). Not a trend change yet — more a long-overdue exhale after one of the strongest momentum runs in years.
Catalyst: Interest rates moved higher this morning, pressuring both equities (cost of capital) and gold (opportunity cost vs yield). Cross-asset weakness in two assets that normally trade differently — a clean macro signal, not noise.
What this means for YOUR book: This is incremental-add territory, not aggressive deployment. If you’ve been waiting for any pullback to put cash to work, today qualifies as a small opportunity — sell premium on weakness in things you’d actually own. If you’ve been heavy long delta into the rally, this is a chance to harvest or reduce, not chase.
TonyR Commentary
Gold does not like interest rates moving higher… and neither does Mr. SPX.
