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P2 Weekly Update — The game plan didn't change — but the portfolio evolved significantly.

Week 20 - Date: Friday, May 16, 2026 Portfolio: P2 — Active SPY: $739.17 · VIX: ~17

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SQTC Squared T Capital Online
May 16, 2026
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TonyB Commentary

This was a week that tested the discipline of the game plan — and the game plan held.

For most of the week, the narrative remained unchanged: the market continued to grind relentlessly higher, and we continued doing exactly what we’ve been doing for weeks — gradually rolling up existing short puts to capture additional long delta exposure while keeping buying power usage controlled.

On Wednesday, we rolled the 686 strike up to 704 for a $1.09 credit. Same approach, same reasoning. The market was paying us to reposition closer to the money, and we took it.

Then Friday happened.

After nearly six weeks of uninterrupted upside, the market finally delivered its first meaningful down day. And that’s where things got interesting.

Rather than pulling back defensively, we used Friday’s weakness to do two things. First, we rolled the 689 strike up to 700 — continuing the systematic roll-up even on a red day, because one down day does not change a multi-week trend. Second, we initiated a new 1x2x1 call diagonal structure with approximately $800 in total defined risk and roughly +10 long deltas.

Under normal circumstances, I would have preferred a standard 1x1 diagonal for closer to +20 deltas. But front-month implied volatility was trading below back-month volatility, making the standard structure less attractive. By adding the extra short call spread in the front month, we reduced the debit, improved theta decay, and cut directional exposure in half — a more conservative approach for the first real pullback we’ve seen in weeks.

The broader point is this: strong trending markets often remain stronger for longer than most traders expect. Trying to repeatedly call tops in this environment has been expensive. Until we see meaningful deterioration in momentum, breadth, or a sustained volatility expansion, fighting the trend remains the lower-probability approach.

Our focus remains the same:

  • Maintain positive delta exposure

  • Keep sizing disciplined

  • Roll up selectively

  • Add structures that define risk clearly

  • Stay flexible and patient

The market will eventually slow down. But until price action confirms that shift, respecting the trend remains the priority.

— TonyB

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