P3 Weekly Update — The ETF Macro Team Is Doing Its Job

Date: Friday, May 8, 2026 Portfolio: P3 — ETF Macro Growth Allocation

Portfolio Commentary

For five-plus weeks now the SPX has been on a near record-setting run, and the temptation in the options portfolios has been to lean against it. Sometimes you fight the tape and it works. This week, in P1, it didn’t — at least not yet.

The whole reason P3 exists is so we don’t have to time those calls.

P3 is built like a balanced soccer team. Each position has a role. Goalie sits in cash and stops the bleeding when nothing works. Defenders absorb pressure when risk goes off. Mid-fielders run between commodities and global themes — they win in both directions if the right stories play out. Attackers carry the offense when the market is running.

This week the attackers are running. SPY is up nearly 8% from entry and dragging the whole book higher. The mid-field is doing something even more interesting — silver, lithium, and copper have each delivered the kind of returns we usually only see from concentrated single-name bets. The defenders are giving up small, exactly as designed when the market is in a risk-on regime. The goalie hasn’t had to do much because the opponent (volatility, drawdown, regime change) hasn’t shown up.

That’s the whole framework. Different roles, different time horizons, different reactions to different market environments. When you build a team like that, you don’t need to call the top.

Just don’t confuse a quiet game from the goalie with not needing one. The day the market pulls back, you’ll be glad 24% of the book is sitting in BIL with a 5% yield instead of chasing the rally at the top.

Team Standings (May 8)

⚔️ Attackers — 44% of book

The offense. Where the alpha shows up when markets are running.