Portfolio 1 | Weekly Update - Up 5% vs. SPX down 4%
Market Commentary - Week Ending April 3, 2026 — Week 14
Weekly Market Summary
This past week was defined by conflicting signals: strong underlying momentum vs. choppy, headline-driven price action.
Momentum Still Driving the Tape. The Nasdaq and mega-cap tech continue to lead, fueled by ongoing strength in AI-related names and resilient earnings expectations. Despite geopolitical noise and macro concerns, buyers continue to show up on dips, reinforcing the trend. Trend remains intact — stay constructive, but don’t chase.
Volatility Not Confirming Fear. Even with negative headlines, volatility indexes like VXN remain in a chop bucket — no real panic or disorder in the system. No volatility spike means no forced liquidation. Market stress is contained, not expanding. This is discomfort, not crisis.
Key News Driving the Week. Geopolitical tensions (Middle East/Iran narrative) created overnight gaps and intraday swings. Fed commentary remained cautious, reinforcing a higher-for-longer tone on rates. Economic data came in mixed — not weak enough to trigger easing, not strong enough to break markets higher decisively. A headline-sensitive market, not a fundamentally broken one.
Liquidity & Positioning Are Fragile. Markets feel thin and reactive, with sharp moves driven more by positioning than conviction. Breakdowns fail quickly, rallies stall without follow-through, and both sides get trapped. This is a trader’s market, not a trend-chaser’s market.
Bottom line: This is a bullish market with fragile internals and headline risk. Momentum says stay long bias. Volatility says no panic. News flow says expect noise and traps. The edge right now is not predicting direction — it’s structuring trades that can withstand noise while consistently harvesting theta.
Uncle Tony’s Take
Bear market rallies come when everyone thinks the market can’t bounce — and when they come, they are stronger and last longer than anyone thinks. That is exactly what happened this week. One tweet, one rumor, and that’s all the market needed to get going.
We took advantage of this move by eliminating losing positions that became small winners. We also added new hedges in case this bounce dies and we fall again. In essence — we reduced risk, added buying power, and are ready to act.
We are very happy with P1. It’s up 5% for the first three months while the S&P is down 4% — that’s a 9% outperformance. That is what a real hedge fund should look like. We are fast to take profits when we have them, add risk when things are going crazy, and reduce risk when markets bounce. Hopefully we can keep this up for Q2 of 2026.
