Taking a Shot: When We Step Outside Our Playbook - SNDK & INTC

They are not high-probability income trades. Just a Lottery Ticket!

This is not what we usually do.

And that’s exactly why it’s worth talking about.

At Grow Your Pile, our foundation is built on:

• High-probability premium selling

• Portfolio-level risk management

• Letting time decay work in our favor

But every once in a while…

The market shifts.

And when it does — especially when we start seeing outsized, directional moves — we look for ways to add something we normally don’t prioritize:

Convexity.

These two trades are exactly that.

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The Setup: Two Trades, Same Idea — Different Personalities

We’re looking at two defined-risk debit put spreads:

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Trade #1 — High Convexity Shot (SNDK)

• Structure: 1085 / 1045 Put Spread

• Debit: ~1.02

• Max Profit: ~$3,898

• Max Loss: ~$102

• Probability of Profit: ~3%

• Delta: -1.23

👉 This is a true lottery-style convex trade

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Trade #2 — More Realistic Shot (INTC)

• Structure: 96 / 90 Put Spread

• Debit: ~0.43

• Max Profit: ~$557

• Max Loss: ~$43

• Probability of Profit: ~14%

• Delta: -6.95

👉 This is still aggressive — but far more achievable

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What These Trades Actually Are

Let’s simplify it:

These are not income trades.

They are:

• Directional bets (to the downside)

• Defined-risk

• Low probability

• High payout relative to cost

You are paying a small amount upfront…

For the chance that:

Price makes a fast, outsized move in your direction

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The Key Difference Between the Two

This is where it gets interesting.

Trade #1 (SNDK) — Extreme Convexity

• Very far out-of-the-money

• Extremely low probability (3%)

• Massive payout (~38x return)

This trade only works if:

The stock makes a violent move — quickly

There is no room for:

• Slow drift

• Chop

• “Kind of right”

You either hit…
or you lose the entire debit.

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Trade #2 (INTC) — Controlled Convexity

• Closer to the money

• Higher probability (14%)

• Lower payout (~13x return)

This trade can work with:

• A moderate move

• Continued weakness

• Even a slightly slower move

It’s still aggressive — but:

It lives in the realm of possibility

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Why Put These Trades On?

Because markets right now are doing something important:

They are moving more than expected.

When that happens:

• Premium selling becomes harder to manage

• Expected move gets exceeded

• Direction starts to matter more

So instead of fighting that…

We allocate a small amount of capital to:

Benefit from the move instead of just defending it

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Portfolio Context (This Is Everything)

Let me be very clear:

These trades are NOT replacements for our strategy.

They are:

• Add-ons

• Small allocations

• Opportunistic plays

Proper sizing:

• 1–2% of portfolio per trade

• Treated as a defined loss upfront

If you’re wrong:
→ You lose the debit

If you’re right:
→ It can meaningfully impact returns

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The Hidden Benefit: Psychological Edge

This is something most traders overlook.

When you are primarily short premium:

• Big moves hurt

• Positions get tested

• You feel behind

Having trades like these:

• Gives you positive convex exposure

• Lets you participate in downside

• Reduces the urge to over-adjust your core book

It’s not just about money.

It’s about:

Staying balanced as a trader

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The Reality Check

Most of these trades will lose.

That’s not a bug — it’s the design.

You are paying for:

• Asymmetry

• Convexity

• Opportunity

If you can’t accept losing 100% of the debit:
→ These trades are not for you

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How We Think About It

We’re not trying to predict markets.

We’re trying to:

• Stay consistent with our core strategy

• Add tools when conditions change

• Take calculated shots when pricing allows

So when we see:

• Big moves

• Momentum

• Mispriced tails

We’re willing to step slightly outside the playbook…

But always with defined risk and small size.

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Final Thought

You don’t build your portfolio on trades like this.

But every once in a while…

One of these hits — and it changes your month.

The key is not to gamble.

The key is:

To allow for outsized outcomes without putting your portfolio at risk

That’s the difference between:

• Chasing moves
  and

• Being positioned for them

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Disclaimer

This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. The trades shown are examples based on specific market conditions and may not be appropriate for every portfolio. Always assess your own financial situation and risk tolerance before trading.