Today’s Trading Tape: Macro Moves That Matter – Nov 3, 2025

Nov 04, 2025

Key highlights:
- Repo market turmoil: “All Hell Breaks Loose In Repo Markets... And Why A Historical Meltup Could Follow”, noting $22BN in Fed repo ops amid persistent stress.
- Earnings reactions: Palantir smashes estimates but fades on valuation concerns (”Most Expensive Stock I’ve Ever Seen”) Kimberly-Clark drops 15% on $40B Kenvue merger Sarepta plunges 20% on study miss .
- Data: ISM Manufacturing PMI misses at 48.7 (contraction) US Mfg PMI beats at 52.5 ; Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast at 4.0%
- Broader: “Short-Squeezers Shredded As Dash-For-Trash Disappoints” ; Goldman on “explosive” moves and inflation risks ; SOFR spikes to 4.22% signaling funding squeeze
Trend: Emphasis on “priced to perfection” stocks and retail exposure to weakening consumers

2. Politics & U.S. Domestic Issues

Focus: Government shutdown, Trump admin actions, immigration, and social unrest. Tone: Critical of Dems/media, supportive of Trump interventions.
Key highlights:
- Shutdown/SNAP: 700K ineligible SNAP recipients purged amid fraud probe ; Trump admin partially funds November benefits, judge sets Monday deadline ; Goldman predicts end scenarios
- Trump: Boasts pushing Netanyahu on Gaza ceasefire; threatens no federal funds if “Mamdani wins” ; plans Mexico cartel mission, Nigeria military action over Christian persecution ; urges ending filibuster .
- Other: Illinois bans ICE arrests in courthouses ; “Trump Must Go Now” protests risk “Civil War 2.0” ; Portland ICE blackout suspected sabotage ; Fetterman says Dems “need to own” shutdown
Trend: Heightened shutdown “woes” and midterm polls (e.g., Dems favored in NJ)

3. Geopolitics & International

Focus: U.S.-China trade thaw, Middle East/Ukraine escalations, global alliances. Tone: Hawkish on threats, optimistic on U.S. leverage.
Key highlights:
- U.S.-China: Beijing pauses chip probes, buys U.S. wheat post-truce [; Trump-Xi Taiwan assurances ; tariff deal enables “Warp Speed 2.0” for rare earths
- Conflicts: Israel threatens Lebanon over Hezbollah ; Ukraine bolsters Pokrovsk troops ; Russia monitors Venezuela with 16K U.S. troops offshore ; October Russian missile peak on Ukraine
- Other: UAE-U.S. AI/energy pact, Microsoft $7.9B UAE invest ; Nigeria responds to Trump’s aid/military threat .
Trend: De-escalation signals in trade wars amid rising military postures.

4. Tech/AI & Corporate

Focus: AI infrastructure deals, job impacts, valuations. Tone: Bullish on growth but wary of bubbles.
Key highlights:
- Deals: Amazon-OpenAI $38B Nvidia chip pact ; Microsoft-IREN $9.7B AI cloud ; Starbucks sells 60% China stake for $4B ; Point72 assets hit $42B
- Impacts: AI “taking toll on jobs” ; ex-cyber staffers charged for hacking moonlighting
- Valuations: Nvidia larger than 6/11 S&P sectors; PLTR at 300x fwd PE
Trend: “Circular funding” hype (e.g., bonds for data centers)