Trade Alert: Portfolio 1 — Risk Off - Busy Open

Cleaning the book into the ceasefire rally Date: April 8, 2026

Tony’s Take

Yesterday’s ceasefire headlines triggered a sharp cross-asset reaction. Short sellers were forced to cover aggressively, while long positions — many of which had been under pressure — finally found relief. Oil reversed violently after pushing to unsustainable highs, while equities, gold, and Bitcoin rallied across the board.

This type of move wasn’t entirely unexpected. We knew a de-escalation event was likely at some point. The challenge, as always, was timing. With oil reaching ~$117, the market was pricing in a scenario that would have been extremely difficult for the global economy to sustain without tipping into a deeper recession. While risks remain, this reset gave us a window of opportunity.

From a portfolio perspective, we acted decisively. We closed out all previously rolled positions that had returned to profitability. Remember: rolled positions originate from trades that were under pressure. When the market gives you a chance to clean them up profitably, you take it.

We also removed our hedges, exited gold, and sold new calls on TLT as bonds rallied alongside the broader risk-on move.

As a result, we’re off to a strong start to the year — up 6.7% while deploying relatively modest capital. For now, we shift back into patience mode, preserving flexibility and waiting for the next high-probability setup.