Trade Alert: Portfolio 2 — First Meaningful Down Day, We have "a Trade"
Same Game Plan - Date: May 15, 2026 SPY Reference: $740.88
Regime Read — Where We Are Right Now
Volatility: VIX ticked up on today’s selloff but remains below 20. This is a garden-variety pullback in a low-vol regime, not a vol expansion event. The market sold off ~1% and VIX barely flinched — that tells you the options market isn’t pricing in follow-through selling.
Momentum: SPY pulled back from $748 to $740 — the first meaningful down day we’ve seen in weeks. After six-plus weeks of relentless buying, one down day is noise, not signal. The key test: does this dip get bought tomorrow? If it does, the trend is intact and we continue rolling up. If it doesn’t, we reassess.
Catalyst watch: May 15 options expiration tomorrow (OPEX). Short-dated positioning unwinds can create noise. Beyond that, no major macro events this week. The China trade optimism narrative is still providing a bid underneath.
What this means for YOUR book: A down day in a strong trend is an opportunity to add controlled delta, not a reason to panic. If you’ve been waiting for a dip to roll up puts or add directional exposure, this is the kind of session where you do it — measured, not aggressive.
TonyB Commentary
Today marked the first meaningful down day we’ve seen in almost two months.
Despite the weakness, we are sticking to the same disciplined game plan that has guided us throughout this entire rally: rolling up existing short puts closer to at-the-money in order to gradually pick up additional long delta exposure.
