Trade Alert: Portfolio 2 — Respecting the Trend, One Roll at a Time
Date: May 14, 2026 SPY Reference: $748.39 (YES 748)
Regime Read — Where We Are Right Now
Volatility: VIX remains near 17, /VX near 19 — compressed and staying compressed. Despite yesterday’s CPI surprise and intraday pullback, vol didn’t expand. That’s a momentum market signature — the dip buyers are so aggressive that even macro catalysts can’t sustain fear for more than a few hours.
Momentum: SPY has rallied from $733 to $748 in two sessions. The China trade optimism narrative and yesterday’s V-shaped reversal confirmed that buyers are still firmly in control. Tech, AI, and semiconductor leadership continue driving the indices. This is not a market looking for a reason to sell — it’s a market looking for a reason to buy more.
Catalyst watch: Office Hours tonight (Bullish Jade Lizard). No major macro data until next week. The path of least resistance remains higher until breadth deteriorates or vol breaks above 20.
What this means for YOUR book: If you have short puts that are getting stale at lower strikes, this is the environment to roll them up — the market is paying you credits to reposition closer to the money. Don’t fight the trend; use it to improve your positioning.
TonyB Commentary
