Trade Alert: Portfolio 3 — Adding Commodities, Trimming Treasuries
A structural upgrade to Portfolio 3 - repositioning for a macro regime where inflation matters again
As we continue to evolve Portfolio 3: ETF Income & Growth, the goal remains the same: build a resilient, diversified, low-maintenance portfolio that adapts to macro regimes — not fights them.
Right now, the macro backdrop is shifting.
The Core Thesis: From Disinflation → Reflation Risk
For the past couple of years, owning Treasuries made sense:
Inflation was coming down
Rates were stabilizing or expected to fall
Bonds provided both income and protection
That environment is no longer as clear. We’re seeing:
Sticky inflation components (services, wages)
Commodity resilience (energy, metals, agriculture)
Rising geopolitical tension and supply constraints
Structural fiscal deficits (which tend to be inflationary over time)
In short: inflation risk is no longer behind us — it’s a two-way street again.
