TWO VIDEOS: V1:Understanding the Current Macro Backdrop & V2:Trading Precious Metals
Tony Battista and Tony Rihan placed three live trades on camera during the broadcast, walking through every decision in real time. Office Hours.
June 26, 2026 · Members Office Hours
One of the highlights of this week’s Office Hours was an in-depth discussion on how we’re approaching the precious metals complex — not just from a macro perspective, but as traders looking for high-probability opportunities. And we didn’t just talk about it: Tony Battista and Tony Rihan placed three live trades on camera during the broadcast, walking through every decision in real time.
As Tony Rihan put it during the session: “The winds have shifted. The wind is against commodities right now.” The job, he explained, isn’t to fight that — it’s to recognize it and adapt.
VIDEO 1: Understanding the Current Macro Backdrop
Before discussing specific trades, Tony Rihan explained why gold and silver have recently come under pressure. His thesis centers around one key market: crude oil.
Oil influences nearly every aspect of the global economy — “plastic, transportation, everything is oil.” When oil prices fall:
Inflation expectations tend to decline.
Investors become less concerned about preserving purchasing power.
Demand for traditional inflation hedges such as gold and silver often weakens.
At the same time, lower inflation can strengthen the U.S. dollar, because U.S. interest rates remain relatively attractive compared to many international markets. Historically, a stronger dollar has often created headwinds for precious metals.
Why This Doesn’t Change the Long-Term Thesis
While these macro forces may temporarily pressure metals, it does not invalidate the long-term investment case. Markets move in cycles. As Tony described gold this year: it was “the golden child at the beginning of the year — now it’s the redheaded stepchild.” That’s how cycles work.
“We are contrarians,” he said, “and we like to trade contrarian products.” But being a contrarian doesn’t mean being reckless — it means recognizing when the wind is at your back and when it’s in your face, and trading accordingly.
Trading the Environment You Have
One of the most important lessons from the session was that successful traders don’t fight the tape. Rather than forcing bullish precious metals trades because of a long-term view, the team explained that today’s environment calls for patience and selective positioning.
“We’re going to trade gold, silver, and oil now with the wind against us,” Tony said. “And we have to show our skills that we can trade with the wind for us or against us. That’s what’s going to make us a good trader.”
This distinction between being an investor and being a trader is critical. As Tony put it: we trade the market we have — not the market we wish we had.
Reading the Tape: Silver Capitulation, Gold’s Steady Vol
Here’s a piece of the analysis you rarely get in a headline. In commodities, volatility tends to behave opposite to equities — as prices fall, vol usually contracts. But silver has been doing something different.
“You’ve got a little bit of expanding volatility in silver right now,” Tony noted, “which to me signifies that maybe you’ve got a little bit of capitulation to the downside — and maybe we get a short-term relief.” Meanwhile, gold is carrying “a very nice IV rank in the forties” — rich enough premium to make selling options worthwhile, with volatility holding steadier than silver’s.
Reading those volatility signals — not just the price — is how the team decides which metal to trade and which structure to use.
Why Oil Matters More Than Most Traders Realize
Many traders watch only gold or silver prices. Tony watches oil first. Energy costs ripple through manufacturing, transportation, consumer prices, inflation expectations, and ultimately central-bank policy.
He also pointed out a subtle but important detail in oil’s option pricing — a persistent call skew: “If you’re selling puts, you’re selling them cheap relative… the pricing model agrees there’s a little bit of upside pressure in oil.” That single observation shaped the defined-risk, bullish structure the team chose.
Looking for Opportunity Instead of Prediction
Although the macro backdrop has become less favorable for metals in the short term, periods of weakness often create some of the best future opportunities. Rather than buying simply because prices have fallen, the team waits for:
Better technical setups
Higher implied volatility
Improved option pricing
Favorable risk/reward opportunities
The objective isn’t to catch the exact bottom. The objective is to enter when probabilities begin shifting back in our favor. Or, as Tony framed the bigger picture: the real edge comes “when everybody’s crying” — that’s when the patient trader steps in. The whole point of staying disciplined now is to be ready then.
Options Strategies We Prefer
Rather than making aggressive directional bets, the team focuses on strategies that define risk while still participating if metals recover. Depending on conditions, that may include:
Selling cash-secured puts
Wide put credit spreads
Covered-call style income strategies
Selective bullish option structures (like a long-delta jade lizard)
On the gold structure specifically, Tony highlighted exactly why he likes it: “It’s a positive-theta-decay trade — you get paid about fourteen dollars a day on roughly three thousand dollars of buying power… and it’s only one or two deltas to SPY per contract. This is the kind of trade I like.” Defined risk, paid to wait, very little directional exposure.
The strategy always depends on volatility, buying power, and overall portfolio exposure.
The Importance of Portfolio Context
Precious metals should never be viewed in isolation. Every trade should complement the rest of your portfolio. Before initiating a gold or silver position, consider:
Current delta
Buying power usage
Existing commodity exposure
Overall portfolio risk
A good trade can become a bad decision if it creates unnecessary concentration. As Tony reminded everyone while pulling up the live book: “Here’s a real portfolio — not BS.” Every position is real money, sized with intention.
Key Lessons From the Session
Falling oil prices may reduce inflation expectations and temporarily pressure precious metals.
A stronger U.S. dollar can create additional headwinds for gold and silver.
Long-term bullish views should not override short-term market realities.
Expanding volatility into a selloff can signal capitulation — and a possible short-term bounce.
Traders should remain patient and wait for high-probability setups rather than trying to predict bottoms.
Options strategies can provide a capital-efficient way to express bullish views while managing risk.
Every precious metals trade should fit within the broader context of your portfolio and overall risk management.
Final Thoughts
The biggest takeaway from this discussion was that successful precious metals trading isn’t about having the strongest opinion — it’s about having the strongest process.
Gold and silver remain important asset classes and long-term portfolio diversifiers, but markets move through cycles. Right now, the combination of lower oil prices, easing inflation expectations, and a stronger U.S. dollar has created short-term headwinds. Rather than fighting those forces, we’re watching patiently, managing risk, and preparing for the next high-probability opportunity.
This Is What Membership Looks Like
This recap is the summary. Members got the whole thing — live.
When you’re inside Grow Your Pile, you don’t just read about the trades after the fact. You:
Watch every trade go on live, in real money, with Tony and Tony talking through strike selection, sizing, and the contrarian read as it happens.
Get the full video replay of every Office Hours session (below).
Receive the trade alerts the moment each position is placed — the Silver covered call, the Gold jade lizard, and the Crude Oil put spread all hit member inboxes today.
See every position on the live dashboard, updated in real money — open trades, closed trades, Greeks, and performance.
Are positioned for the next move. The team is patient now precisely so it can be aggressive “when everybody’s crying” — and members get that call in real time.
In the full replay below, you’ll watch Tony Battista and Tony Rihan put all of this to work — placing the live Silver, Gold, and Crude Oil trades exactly as we did them on the broadcast.
The full Office Hours video replay is for paid Grow Your Pile members.
VIDEO 2: Trading Precious Metals:
(Members Only Content)
