Weekly Update — All Three Portfolios (1, 2 & 3)
Week ending May 1, 2026
Quick sizing note before you read
P1 is a $1,000,000 model portfolio and P2 is $234,000. Don’t let the dollar numbers throw you — every strategy below scales down. The full sizing guide is in the dashboard, but the rule of thumb stays the same: 1 SPX ≈ 2 /ES ≈ 10 SPY ≈ 20 /MES. A $50K account trades roughly 5% of P1’s size; $250K trades 25%. Same edges. Same Greeks. Smaller dollars.
TonyR — Market Commentary — Portfolio 1
The Last 30 Days: From Panic to Power Move
The past 30 days have delivered one of the most aggressive market reversals we’ve seen in recent memory. The SPX went from a fast, fear-driven selloff to a sharp, almost relentless recovery — catching many traders offsides and forcing repositioning across the board.
From a trader’s perspective, this type of move is both an opportunity and a trap. The initial downside created stress across short premium positions, expanding risk and testing discipline. Then came the reversal — fast, vertical, and unforgiving. Those who managed risk, reduced size, and preserved buying power were able to reset and reposition at better levels. Those who didn’t were forced into reactive decisions — covering at the lows or chasing at the highs. This is a textbook example of why survival and flexibility matter more than being “right.”
From an investor’s perspective, the move reinforces an important truth: markets can reprice quickly, often faster than fundamentals justify. The rally does not necessarily mean all risks have disappeared — it means positioning and sentiment shifted aggressively. These types of moves often lead into consolidation phases, where the market tests whether the new levels can hold.
The key lesson from the last 30 days is simple but critical:
The market doesn’t reward conviction — it rewards positioning.
This move created winners not because they predicted it, but because they were:
Properly sized
Diversified
And able to adapt
As we move forward, the focus should not be on chasing what already happened — but on being prepared for what comes next.
Remember: trade your portfolio, not individual trades. Make sure each trade fits within your capital, your direction assumption, your risk tolerance. A portfolio is a team — each new player you add must contribute to the success of the team as a whole.
TonyB Commentary — Portfolio 2
We started the week in April… and somehow ended it in May. That alone tells you how quickly this market is moving — and why discipline has been so critical.
We came into the week cautiously, initiating a delta roll-up on our short puts early Monday morning. The goal was simple: improve positioning without increasing risk unnecessarily. Buying power usage remained limited, and we made a small but profitable positive delta adjustment to stay aligned with the market’s strength.
Interestingly, we ended the week in a very similar fashion — once again adding measured positive delta, while keeping capital deployment controlled. That consistency is intentional. In this environment, it’s not about swinging big — it’s about staying in control of the portfolio at all times.
The standout trade of the week came on Tuesday. We stepped in more aggressively, deploying additional buying power into a 1×2, $5-wide put ratio spread, collecting a strong $5.16 credit. This allowed us to:
Increase long delta exposure
Take advantage of elevated premium
Do so with a structure that fits within our broader portfolio framework
That’s the type of trade we want — capital-efficient, directional when needed, but still aligned with our overall risk profile.
As the week progressed and the market continued to rally, we remained conservative with any additional roll-ups. The focus shifted from chasing to maintaining our positive delta posture, rather than overextending into strength. This is where many traders get into trouble — adding too much risk at the wrong time.
As it stands:
Buying power usage remains on the lower end of our range
Positive delta is moderate and controlled
That’s exactly where we want to be heading into next week.
Looking ahead: If we do see any weakness in the market, it could present a much better opportunity set. With roughly 45 days to expiration, we’ll be in a strong position to:
Deploy additional buying power
Add new long delta exposure at more favorable levels
Continue building the portfolio from a position of strength
🔥 NEW THIS WEEK — P1 Year-to-Date “Every Trade of 2026” Breakdown
We’ve published a complete transparency report for Portfolio 1 covering every single trade from January 1 through April 30, 2026. +$73,170 YTD net of fees (+7.3% on $1M starting capital), every fill of every chain shown.
